Prediction markets.
Event contracts priced as probabilities, from rate cuts to elections.
Reading…
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What it answers.
- What chance do the markets give a US rate cut at the next meeting, and do the venues agree?
- How much money would it take to move these odds by five points?
- Was this sudden jump in the odds led by a few large trades placed just before it?
- Has the result of this question been challenged, and how long do challenges like it take to settle?
- When a venue priced an outcome at 70%, did it happen about 70% of the time?
- If the official figure is late or revised, how would this question settle, and what would that do to our positions across venues?
Who uses it.
Macro funds and event-driven traders
Risk to carry through a rate decision in Washington, Frankfurt or Tokyo, or a UK election. Cross-venue odds, money-weighted, show when conviction shifts.
Risk desks at banks and asset managers
Which shocks to test, tariffs or a contested election, and how much weight each gets. A dated daily probability per scenario, for the risk committee.
Corporate treasurers
Hedge currency or rates before or after an election or rate decision? Alert when odds cross your level: a number, not a headline.
Market makers in event contracts
Same question quoted across venues: how much to hold into the result? Venue gaps, queued offers and early warning of challenges show where risk sits.
Licensed prediction-market operators
Which questions to list, and how each settles? Wording tested against edge cases; large trades ahead of sudden moves flagged. Problems surface before settlement.
What we model, test and run.
Thin book before a release
The hour before a jobs report: offers thinning both sides, venues drifting apart, large one-sided trades. What it has meant before for the odds and the venue gap, and what it likely means now.
One outcome at two venues
A US rate cut priced apart at a regulated exchange and an on-chain venue. When the gap beats fees, spreads, locked collateral and wording risk; only where you may trade both.
Jumps on thin books
A ten-point jump in an hour, unscheduled and on a thin book: how often it gives some back within a day.
Settlement stress run
Your positions across questions and venues, through every way they might settle: late or revised figures, recounts, challenges, paused trading. Out: book value range, money locked and for how long, worst cases.
Event execution engine
Quotes both sides within set spreads, pulls quotes as books thin before releases, offsets at a second venue. Runs in your systems, on your rules, with an instant stop.
What we build for you.
Consensus gauge
A 0–100% dial per question, a needle per venue, a heavier consensus needle, the move since yesterday beneath. Alerts when needles spread too far or consensus jumps within an hour.
Cost-to-move grader
Two bars per probability: the money needed to push it five points up, and five down. Graded firm or fragile, with an alert when the book thins before a release.
Unusual-trade monitor
Any trade above your size landing in the hour before a ten-point move, with time, price and move. On chain, wallets that trade together are grouped. Ready for compliance review.
Settlement-risk model
Each question followed from proposed result to payout, the challenge window counted down. Alert when a challenge lands mid-trading; payout times known by topic and wording.
Venue calibration scorecard
Each venue's odds a week, a day and an hour before close, checked against results. Did 70% outcomes happen 70% of the time? Graded by topic, from elections to sport.
Delivered to you.
Morning event reading
Before the open in London, New York or Tokyo: consensus, overnight move, venue gap, cost-to-move grade, disputes. As a note or a team-chat assistant.
Matched-question stream
The same question matched across venues, live: best prices, queued offers and settlement status, delivered into your own systems.
Resolution-criteria review
For licensed operators: wording tested before listing against delays, revisions, recounts and ties. Then: the official figure that settles it, the fallback, and dispute steps.
Listings and rules briefing
Weekly, for licensed operators and lawyers: event contracts filed by regulated US exchanges, by venue and topic. Plus US and UK rule and licence changes.
We build the intelligence.